industry

MoMo B Meeting with Mike Short

by Paul Joseph December 28, 2011 Featured

MoMo-B guys had arranged for a meeting with Mike Short (an industry veteran, currently with Telefonica) while he was here last month. And Kesava Reddy was kind enough to include me there. There was a short speech by him followed by some Q&A. It was good to see a veteran in the operator industry answering questions that were critical to the operators :-)   Here is a short compilation of the Q&A. Needless to say, they are not verbatim and are based on my understanding. Read it with the disclaimer that it could all be wrong. What in your opinion is the need for 3G services? 3G gives an operator a way to improve 3Cs – Capacity / Capability / Content. (He did go into the details of all Cs but I do not remember the details) What are the top 3 focus areas for Telefonica in the near future? Combination of services (Fixed and Mobile) Making usage of data services easy (particularly in emerging markets) Better International Reach (through good roaming agreements & VOIP services – Jajah Acquisition is towards this) What is your opinion on how operators should react to Over The Top players? Operators should leave the basic services to the OTT players and not really compete but collaborate with them. Instead, operators should go after new areas like Education, Healthcare etc Given the high penetration of mobile subscribers in many markets and several markets saturating, what would be the next growth area for operators? M2M is going to be the next big opportunity. I expect to have about 20 billion mobile connections by 2020 (more than twice the population). Healthcare, Education, Energy & Transport are going to be some of the major industries. Why has there been no major Network Innovations while the application innovations are so rapid? Network innovations are indeed happening but is not coming out to public knowledge because we are used to talking about networks in generations over generations (2G, 3G etc). So only the quantum leaps are known. Incremental innovations are not.

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Music Download in India

by Paul Joseph December 28, 2011 Featured

Every once a while, a not-so-tech-savvy relative of mine would ask me about a “good site” where they can download songs from – I am not too deep into torrents & stuff so it is not an easy answer for me. (Not that I purchase songs – I usually pick it up from someone who has already figured it, that is all :) ). All I do is search in Google for that particular song they need and get it somehow. But then, it really is just giving them (the proverbial) fish to eat & not teaching them to fish. BTW, the moment I talk about paying for music, they think I have gone mad (even people as old as 65 years who would have paid through the nose to buy cassettes then). As I do these searches, I wonder why no iTunes equivalent has really come up in India with price points that seem OK to people (Does Weber’s law really work here? Are we people similar to the ones Jobs mentioned when he introduced iTunes – that we choose to download from pirated sites only because there is no easy equivalent?) Also, I recently heard that a significant portion of the revenue for music labels come from the “CRBT” services that operators run. And not really from sales of CDs or online music.  Given that, why do the labels not make MP3 downloads completely free at their site? If there is a place where they can download songs that are zero-priced & hassle-free (pop-ups, viruses etc), would that not be THE place people go to download? Revenue from CRBTs would anyways keep coming because the operators control it. One could think of other ideas like inserting ads between songs in an album, selling merchandize on the site etc. Anyways, I am sure people in the music industry has thought about all these things more than a hundred thousand times. There would be no lack of such ideas – it is a problem of the industry structure beyond these. Then why am I posting this here? Hey, no one said I was providing solutions here. Just some thoughts, OK?

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Mobile Applications for India – Are we living up to the potential (Speech)

by Paul Joseph December 28, 2011 Featured

I was supposed to speak at the CSI event in Ahmedabad earlier this month. Due to a freak delay in flight departure from Bangalore, I did not reach Ahmedabad at all – went till Mumbai & came back. :-) Nevertheless, here is the speech I had prepared for that: [Personal intro, Intro to Vodafone Dev Program go here] Let us now move into the topic “Mobile Applications for India – Are we living up to the potential”. First, a quick take on how mobile apps are faring in India right now. There are scores of application stores, with stores of handset vendors like Nokia, Samsung, stores of platforms like Android, iOS, Windows Phone, stores of mobile operators like Airtel, Vodafone, Idea, Aircel and also some independent stores like Getjar, Opera etc. There are also niche attempts by Indian start-ups like Onward Mobility, AppBazar etc that have seen some mind share from developers. There have been several Indian applications: NewsHunt, TukTuk Meter, TaazzaGo, Zomato, CardsCreator, Sparsh etc. Apart from the app companies, there have been other successful companies around mobile ecosystem: mChek in payments, InMobi on mobile advertising, Infosys has its own platform called Flypp offered as a white labelled app store. On the downloads front, we have great statistics from everyone. Airtel claimed 2.5 million downloads right in the first month. For Nokia, India is the top download center for Ovi Store, India is an important market for Android and Windows Phone too. Getjars and Operas thrive on the downloads from India. Our own application store at Vodafone, live for the past couple of weeks has seen tremendous numbers. In summary, we are doing wonderful. You don’t want to clap? Everything is hunky dory, right? We are the next super power in the world. Silicon Valley, move on! India has taken over. Is that so? Is this all we can do? Come on!! Without taking away the successes we have had, let us look into this more deeply. First, some numbers: Indian population: 1.21 billion, Mobile Subscribers: 800+ million, Handset distribution: Close to 10% smartphones, 70% Java enabled phones. More than 100 million data users. Forget the accuracy of these numbers. They are huge, aren’t they? Now, is everyone using an ‘App’? Barring a handful, how many pure Indian Apps are there? A slightly deeper look into this question will show why we are nowhere near our potential. To understand the potential, let us now think about what an app itself is. What is an app? Angry Birds, right? Like the joke goes, our smartphones now have the same computing power that NASA’s super computers had in the 1960s. However, NASA put a man on the moon and we put birds on pigs. Jokes apart, if you look at it, an app is an “encapsulation of an experience”. It could be reading, listening, transacting, playing etc. You get the point? Newshunt is an encapsulation of the experience of news reading – on a mobile phone,  Mundu Radio is an encapsulation of the experience of listening to FM Radio – on a mobile phone, NGPay is an encapsulation of the experience of booking railway ticket – on a mobile phone, Angry Birds is the encapsulation of the experience of playing slingshot – on a mobile phone. So, who are the competitors to mobile apps now? It is the thing that the consumer now uses – For NewsHunt, it is the newspaper, for NGPay, it is the IRCTC website or the counter at railway stations and so on. Do you follow me? Now, have we reached a stage where every possible encapsulation of experiences into a mobile phone has happened for the Indian consumer? The simple answer is, NO! With so much of potential in this space, let us look at some of the issues in creating mobile apps for India. Not enough local content is available . For example, if you want to build an app to track the traffic pattern in Ahmedabad, there is no ready data / APIs available for one to use. If one wishes to create a mandi price app for rural India, the area is so fragmented that unless one starts building a network of agents, it is impossible to do. And so on. There is minimal Indian language support in the handsets . Of course, there are phones with Indian language support, both display & input. But frankly, doesn’t the user experience on all of them suck? Which is why we have Panini & Sparsh keypads out in the market, right? Don’t get me wrong, I know Nokias & Samsungs are doing their best but it is still not good enough. Data penetration is low. Of course, the operators are trying their best and there is growth but the penetration is still low. It is actually a chicken and egg story. Data penetration will increase only with killer apps and killer apps would come only with data penetration. Device/Platform fragmentation has been a huge issue . There are more than 90 handset brands. Even among the feature phones, there are so many versions of Java running on them that it is close to impossible to build a Java app that would run on all of them. Next is monetization . With very low credit card penetration in the country, most people are dependent on the operators for billing. And they behave pricey. We operators have started changing now but it is going to be a while before significant changes come in. Finally, to marketing and distribution . It is one thing to be on all stores but effectively, unless you break into the top league, you are not going to see significant downloads. And you need deep pockets for other kinds of advertising.! So there are several issues like these. And we can keep whining about them. But that is not going to help anyone! As Woody Allen said, ” The only person standing between me and greatness is – ME .” It is like saying, if only I were born in the Silicon Valley, I would have been Steve Jobs . You might remember a dialogue from the movie Social Network: Zuckerburg says to the Winklewoss twins: If you had invented Facebook, you would have invented Facebook . Likewise, if I were Steve Jobs, I would have been Steve Jobs . Not whining about stuff. Don’t get me wrong. This is not to demean anyone, just a fact of life. Issues would exist but we just need to find ways to overcome them. I know it is easy to preach but then that is what I am here for! What I want to talk to you next about is the kind of opportunities that exist in this space with all those issues? First of all, you need to decide – What business are you in? Building an App? Building a bunch of apps in a category (say games)? Build apps for someone else – that is pure services? Or into one of the associated business that come with apps stores. I will now list down some areas that I have noticed beyond just building apps for oneself or for others. Some of them could interest you! Application Stores, for distributing others apps – Well, this is a big boys’ game right now but there are indeed attempts by companies like Onward Mobility to build their own apps stores. Analytics on apps stores – So many developers do not have internal analytics for their apps. Why don’t you build one? There are companies like Distimo/Flurry in this space but no one in India. Apart from analytics to developers, you can also sell research reports based on analytics to apps store providers. I can tell you that I desperately need it to get to know about Indian apps but there is no clear report available right now – I can be your first customer. Recommendations – With apps stores getting crowded, discovery of apps is huge pain point for users and in turn even developers. Can you build a neat, personalized recommendation mechanism specifically for Indian users? Cross Platform tools – Right now, developers are struggling to get their apps built & tested for multiple platforms/models. Can you build a service that makes it easy? There are so many HTML5 based cross platform tools out there – but one for India, supporting all Indian languages & that comes with a Siri like service for Gujrati would be wonderful. DIY tools for app creation – In the late 90s, every brand, big & small, wanted a ‘web presence’. Likewise, very soon, every brand would want an ‘app presence’. Imagine your dentist having an app, your favorite restaurant having one, your hairstylist having one and so on. Would you not be thrilled? But can these guys now afford the insane amounts charged for mobile app development by the services companies? No. But what if they have a do it yourself tool to create one for their needs? There have been attempts by Google, Nokia & some third parties towards this but none as close to having your favorite sweets ordered from the “Bikanerwala app” on your phone. There is a huge scope here. Enterprise Mobility – This is an area of huge growth and the speaker after me is going to explain it better. I would like to urge you to not think of Enterprise mobility as something for large enterprises alone. In the consumer segment, to a lot of Indians, their first experience of internet is through a mobile. Similarly, to a lot of small enterprises in India, their first experience of an ERP is going to be through a mobile. Remember, I have not even mentioned the scope in the areas of building a business with an app as its basic interface here. That is an ocean. Just get out of this building (once my talk is over) and see for yourself the amount of opportunities that exist. Encapsulate every experience of an Indian into an app. Let Apple’s statement of ‘There is an App for that’ be true to every experience of an Indian. Well, you know what; this list is bound to be incomplete, even wrong in some areas. That is because; we have only scratched the surface here. And these come from me – an armchair critic, if you will, sitting in a large organization & preaching to others. If you get on the field and attempt to come out with solutions, there will be 1000s of problems that are waiting to be solved. By you, right now, right outside this campus!! Finally, a quote from Steve Jobs! It is customary to mention Steve Jobs in such presentations and have his quote. I do not want to be left out. Jokes apart, he says ” When you start looking at a problem, it seems really simple—because you don’t understand its complexity. And your solutions are way too oversimplified, and they don’t work. Then you get into the problem and you see it’s really complicated. And you come up with all these convoluted solutions. That’s where most people stop, and the solutions tend to work for a while. But the really great person will keep going and find the key underlying principle of the problem and sort of come full circle with a beautiful, elegant solution that works .” In terms of mobile apps for India, I think we are in the stage where our solutions are still oversimplified ones. Soon, we will realize that they do not work. And then come up with convoluted solutions. And then some of us will keep going and find the underlying problem and come up with an elegant solution. I would like to believe we have one of them in our audience today! Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. It was a pleasure speaking here!

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India Reaches 900 Million Telephone Lines

by Paul Joseph December 11, 2011 Featured

The number of telephone subscribers in India rose to 906.93 million at the end of September 2011 from 899.78 million at the end of the previous month, with service providers adding a total of 7.153 million connections during the month for a growth rate of 0.79 per cent. According to the latest data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) the share of urban subscribers had marginally increased to 66.31% from 66.27% whereas the share of rural subscribers had marginally declined to 33.69% from 33.73% in September. With this, the overall tele-density in India reached 75.48 at the end of September, 2011 from 74.96 of the previous month. Subscription in urban areas grew from 596.27 million in August, 2011 to 601.42 million at the end of September, 2011. Rural subscription increased from 303.51 million to 305.51 million. The growth of rural and urban subscription is 0.66% and 0.86%, respectively, the statement said. The overall urban teledensity has increased from 164.87 to 166.01 and rural teledensity from 36.19 to 36.40. The total wireless subscriber base increased from 865.71 million in August to 873.61 million at the end of September, registering a growth of 0.91%. The share of urban subscribers has marginally increased to 65.95% from 65.90% whereas the share of rural subscribers has marginally decreased from 34.10% to 34.05%. The overall wireless teledensity in India has touched 72.70 Wireless subscription in urban areas has increased from 570.54 million in August to 576.12 million at the end of September. Rural subscription increased from 295.17 million to 297.49 million during the same period. This shows marginally higher growth in urban subscription (0.98%) than rural subscription (0.79%). The urban wireless teledensity has increased from 157.76 to 159.03 and rural teledensity has increased from 35.20 to 35.44. Private operators hold 88.40% of the wireless market share whereas BSNL and MTNL, the two PSU operators hold only 11.60% market share.

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Telecom manufacturing policy sends negative signals, says EC

by Paul Joseph November 22, 2011 Featured

The European Commission has told the Communications and IT Minister, Mr Kapil Sibal, that the move to give preferential treatment to domestic manufacturers of telecom equipment raised questions about India’s commitment to open and fair conditions of doing business. In a letter to Mr Sibal, European Commission’s Vice-President, Ms Neelie Kroes, said that the proposed manufacturing policy sent negative signals to the international business community and warned India of losing out on future innovations. Source

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India Seeks Access to the Broadband Highway

by Paul Joseph November 19, 2011 Featured

Visitors to India quickly experience firsthand the country’s notoriously inadequate infrastructure: the crumbling roads, sprawling shantytowns, and frequent power outages. Just as big a drag on India’s economy is a problem that’s not so easy to spot—the country’s Internet infrastructure. In a nation of more than 1.1 billion people, almost everyone on the Internet has to tolerate downloading data at the sluggish rate of 256 kilobytes per second. Source

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Innovative Indian Language Keyboard Layout

by Paul Joseph November 14, 2011 Featured

Sparsh Indian Language Keyboard Very interesting concept. Wish the OEMs in India pre-load such an IME on models launched in India. Available in Android Market here PS:: Sparsh team is known to me for several years.

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Micromax in Dubai

by Paul Joseph October 23, 2011 Featured
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Indian Languages to fail online?

by Paul Joseph September 28, 2011 Featured

Read this first: Why Indian Languages Failed to make a mark Online! | being practical This is a well written article, like most articles by PJ. However, I sincerely wishes that this prediction of his fails. Here are some of his comments & my thoughts Consider India – while Hindi is leading official language, but no single language has adoption across the country. State governments have endorsed respective regional languages as official, Hindi failed to find the common ground – but English did! Well, while Hindi might not be spoken across, the sheer ‘number’ of Hindi speakers in India is more than several other languages (like say Japanese / Korean) which have a high degree of Internet / Mobile usage. So would be the case with Telugu, Tamil & several other languages. Let us not look at the urban populace alone. Think about the number of people in rural India who are conversant in English. Take market like China – The innovators, the early adopters, the influencers, the decision makers, the entrepreneurs – all of them DON’T KNOW English!  So innovators developed softwares, websites, products in Chinese; early adopters used Chinese products and so did the influencers, decision makers, and everyone else in China. Take India – we know our Mother Tongue (our Mother Tongues are different) + we know English! I agree 100%. The ‘early adopters’ / ‘innovators’ / ‘influencers’ in India knowing English could be the single biggest reason for the state of affairs currently. It can be confidently said that the percentage of users who will read/write/speak English language will keep growing for next 50 to 100 years. The same cannot be said about Indic languages. Same is the case in China / Korea too, ain’t it? Please, let us not wait for 100 years for our (currently under privileged) country men to start using the Internet. many users prefer to give examination in English language and during their classes learn computers that have English versions of Windows / Office and other software applications. It could just be a question of availability & the UX One of the most favoring factor for languages like French, Spanish, Portuguese, etc was the fact that they followed alphabets from English language (ABCD…XYZ). No additional fonts, hardware or input devices were required to be created when uses adopted computers usage in these languages – both reading and writing. I used to think on similar lines till I visited Korea. You think Chinese / Korean / Japanese scripts are any easier? While content was created in other global languages based on English alphabets from early days of Internet – it took a long time before content in Indian languages started appearing on Internet. By the time ability to create content in Indian languages was available – English had taken a mighty lead in its adoption as Internet’s mother-tongue for India. Agreed, but there is a huge segment of population without knowledge of Internet. It is still possible to break the lead. Actually there is no need to compete. There is enough opportunity for every language here! As users we consume all regional languages through other Media – Television, Radio, Newspapers. Its very easy to consume on traditional media and the ecosystem exists for – content (TV programs, news content, audio content for radio), publishers (multiple TV channels, news papers & radio stations) and advertisers (promoting products in Indian languages). There is huge amount of content produced, audience availability & consumption, and advertiser interest.How many times have you sent an official email in Hindi? No business may deny communication in lndian language if it gets you more business – but did you send? and other questions. Well, you & I (& the readers of our blogs) are not the audience for this. The audience is something that needs to be built. As you have said, for other media, the ecosystem exists. For this, the ecosystem needs to be built. Speaking of media & consumption, we cannot ignore the diaspora (which our film makers are exploiting). I agree with the points about rewards & monetization. As I see, that is all part of ecosystem creation. Finally, about the litmus test One fine day if he declares that only SMS in local languages will be accepted. How many users you think will send the answer as  (केबीसी क्यू क, ख, ग, घ)  or any other local Indian languages? Will there be a SMS responses go up or fall drastically? I do not agree this is a litmus test. This CAN remain in English and Indian language Internet can grow. It need not be a “this” or “that”. Finally, while the tools for content creation evolve (with better UX & what not), it might be essential to focus on making sure the ‘content consumption’ is done well. So many of the phones / browsers still do not support Unicode (or have Indian languages enabled) by default. Let us actually get a bit impractical (no pun) & drive the Indian language adoption on Internet please. :-)

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UID Authenticity

by Paul Joseph September 8, 2011 Featured

Sad to see this: Cracks appear in Unique Identification Authority of India’s enrolment process Like I said before , I see quite a few issues in the process. There was some anecdotal evidence too I got recently: A friend of mine who lives in Bangalore managed to get UID in Mysore by showing address proof of his father’s house there. Now, can Passport / SIM be issued to him just based on this? More fearful is the fact that his wife got her UID by just “saying” she was his wife it seems – no documents needed at all. Atrocious! I hope these were just teething issues and things do get resolved. But the hope is reducing by the day. BTW, here is the UID form being given in Pondicherry (picked it up there from my folks). Front Page (click to enlarge) Back page (click to enlarge)

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